New research shows that climate change models developed 50 years ago are accurate today. The research came to this conclusion after analyzing 17 models from the 1970s. They compared the data with the current observation of climate and data from 2007.
Climate change deniers have been dealt a blow by new research data that confirms that scientific models predicting these changes from 50 years ago are accurate. The models that are used by scientists to predict the effect of climate change have been in use for a long time. The research focused on those models developed from the 1970s onwards.
The climate change deniers have always used these models to make claims that the predictions made by scientists in the past did not pan out. The deniers, therefore, try to rally the policymakers to ignore scientific advice for climate change. This research, however, has put such claims to rest with data comparing the models with today’s data on how climate has changed.
Comparison of data from the climate change models
The research was published in Geophysical Research Letters and compared the models from the 1970s with how the climate has changed today and in 2007. The data showed that many models were very accurate in predicting what we are experiencing today and the changes that have occurred.
The research, however, faulted some of the models such as one developed by NASA researcher James Hansen. Hansen’s model had overestimated the amount of greenhouse gases and the changes the climate would have undergone by this time. Hansen acknowledged the mistake they had made in their model which was off by about fifty percent.
Zeke Hausfather, a researcher at the University of California at Berkeley argued that Hansen’s model did not put into consideration the reduction of emission of greenhouse gases. He, however, gave credit to him for being able to establish a link between the amount of greenhouse emitted and the amount of warming they caused.
Evidence of climate change over the last few decades
Out of the 17 climate change models evaluated, 10 were virtually indistinguishable from observation. 14 out of 17 models were not differentiable from observations and two of the fourteen models showed more warming than actually occurred. One model showed less warming than actually occurred.
The research received some criticism from some scientists who did not participate in the study, with some arguing that it used simple statistical analysis for a very complex problem. Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, for instance, said that he had doubts about the conclusion of the study that the models were capturing the process driving global warming.
The research, however, has received praise for providing evidence of climate change over the last few decades. The research was also able to capture climate change models’ accuracy from five decades ago in comparison with modern times.
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